Russian Journal of ImmunologyRussian Journal of Immunology1028-72212782-7291Russian Society of Immunology16210.31857/S102872210006910-6Research ArticleSTEP-BY-STEP SIMULATION RISK REDUCTION OF PRIVATE ACUTE RESPIRATORY VIRAL INFECTION CASES IN PATIENTS WITH DIFFERENT IMMUNE STATUSMartynovA. I.<p>Ph. D., first Deputy Director,</p><p>Moscow</p>fake@neicon.ruFedoskovaT. G.<p>MD, Head of the laboratory of Molecular Mechanisms of Allergy,</p><p>Moscow</p>fake@neicon.ruFeofanovaT. V.<p>Phys.-MD., Leading Researcher., Laboratory of Immunological Processes modeling,</p><p>Moscow</p>tatianafeofanova@yandex.ruZelenovaZ. V.<p>Researcher, Laboratory of Immunological Processes Modeling,</p><p>Moscow</p>fake@neicon.ruFederal Medical-Biological Agency of Russia National Research Center Institute of Immunology15042019222-14004020405202004052020Copyright © 2019, Martynov A.I., Fedoskova T.G., Feofanova T.V., Zelenova Z.V.2019<p>A step-by-step statistical model for calculating the risks of frequent annual cases of acute respiratory viral infection in adults in the conditions of changing the magnitude of the harmful eff ects is proposed. The algorithm was tested on the data of two groups of workers of the chemical enterprise, which diff ered in size of the corresponding immune markers. It is shown that with the same reduction in the level of harmful eff ects, the rate of risk reduction in the groups diff ered by 2.5 times. Thus, the model can be used to select a priority group of employees in the conditions of a given impact on the production factor in order to minimize the value of the specifi ed risk for them.</p>immunityacute respiratory viral infectionincreased riskproduction factorpersonal protective equipmentstatistical modelиммунитетострая респираторная вирусная инфекцияповышенный рискпроизводственный факторстатистическая модель[1. Мартынов А. И., Федоскова Т. Г., Феофанова Т. В., Зеленова З. В. Иммунные маркеры повышенного риска частых случаев острой респираторной вирусной инфекции у работников химического производства Российский иммунологический журнал. 2017, 11, 3, 419–421.][2. Richter J., Pelech L. Immunological fi ndings in groups of children after compensatory measures. Toxicol Lett. 1996, 88, 1–3, 165–168.][3. Мартынов А. И., Федоскова Т. Г., Феофанова Т. В., Зеленова З. В. Некоторые аспекты управления рисками ежегодных случаев острой респираторной вирусной инфекции в группах лиц с разным иммунным статусом. В кн.: Управление развитием крупномасштабных систем (MLSD’2018) Труды одиннадцатой международной конференции. ИПУ РАН, Москва 2018, 391–399.]