STEP-BY-STEP SIMULATION RISK REDUCTION OF PRIVATE ACUTE RESPIRATORY VIRAL INFECTION CASES IN PATIENTS WITH DIFFERENT IMMUNE STATUS

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Abstract

A step-by-step statistical model for calculating the risks of frequent annual cases of acute respiratory viral infection in adults in the conditions of changing the magnitude of the harmful eff ects is proposed. The algorithm was tested on the data of two groups of workers of the chemical enterprise, which diff ered in size of the corresponding immune markers. It is shown that with the same reduction in the level of harmful eff ects, the rate of risk reduction in the groups diff ered by 2.5 times. Thus, the model can be used to select a priority group of employees in the conditions of a given impact on the production factor in order to minimize the value of the specifi ed risk for them.

About the authors

A. I. Martynov

Federal Medical-Biological Agency of Russia National Research Center Institute of Immunology

Author for correspondence.
Email: fake@neicon.ru

Ph. D., first Deputy Director,

Moscow

Russian Federation

T. G. Fedoskova

Federal Medical-Biological Agency of Russia National Research Center Institute of Immunology

Email: fake@neicon.ru

MD, Head of the laboratory of Molecular Mechanisms of Allergy,

Moscow

Russian Federation

T. V. Feofanova

Federal Medical-Biological Agency of Russia National Research Center Institute of Immunology

Email: tatianafeofanova@yandex.ru

Phys.-MD., Leading Researcher., Laboratory of Immunological Processes modeling,

Moscow

Russian Federation

Z. V. Zelenova

Federal Medical-Biological Agency of Russia National Research Center Institute of Immunology

Email: fake@neicon.ru

Researcher, Laboratory of Immunological Processes Modeling,

Moscow

Russian Federation

References

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  2. Richter J., Pelech L. Immunological fi ndings in groups of children after compensatory measures. Toxicol Lett. 1996, 88, 1–3, 165–168.
  3. Мартынов А. И., Федоскова Т. Г., Феофанова Т. В., Зеленова З. В. Некоторые аспекты управления рисками ежегодных случаев острой респираторной вирусной инфекции в группах лиц с разным иммунным статусом. В кн.: Управление развитием крупномасштабных систем (MLSD’2018) Труды одиннадцатой международной конференции. ИПУ РАН, Москва 2018, 391–399.

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Copyright (c) 2019 Martynov A.I., Fedoskova T.G., Feofanova T.V., Zelenova Z.V.

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